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Hans
Günter Brauch
Klimapolitik
der Schwellenstaaten:
Südkorea, Mexiko, Brasilien
AFES-PRESS Studie für das Umweltbundesamt
[Climate
Policy of Threshold States:
South Korea, Mexico, Brazil
AFES-PRESS Study for the Federal Environment
Agency]
AFES-PRESS
Report No. 66
Environment Studies 1 (Green Series)
Mosbach: AFES-PRESS, 39 Figures, 132 Tables
1998, 344 pp., ISBN 3-926979-70-4,
€ 35.00 - $ 42.00 - SFr 68.00
English Summary (below)
Contents
(German)
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English
Summary
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This
report under contract of the German Environment Office
(UBA) focuses on one aspect of North-South environment
policy: the climate policy of the three threshold states:
Republic of Korea, Mexico and Brazil, three non-Annex
I states under the UN Framework Convention on Climate
Change (FCCC) and Non-Annex B states under the Kyoto Protocol
(KP). Three criteria are being used for the assessment:
a) contribution to global warming; b) economic status
and c) impact of global warming (victim status).
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The
study is organised in eight chapters: chapter 1 introduces
into this new policy area, chapter 2 reviews the international
context of the debate on enlarging the Annex I states
at COP-3 in Kyoto, chapter 3 and 5 analyse the regional
context of climate policy for East Asia and Latin America,
chapters 4, 6 and 7 offer three extensive case studies
on the Republic of Korea, Mexico and Brazil while chapter
8 draws conceptual conclusions.
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Chapter
1 on national and international climate policy describes
the evolution of climate policy since 1988, 92 years after
Arrhenius assumed a linkage between burning of fossil
fuel and carbon concentration in the atmosphere. It defines
the terms of national (domestic and foreign economic)
and inter- and transnational climate policy of industrial
(Annex I, II), transformation (Annex II) and developing
countries (non-Annex I states) and discusses criteria
for the adaptation of the list of Annex I states with
respect to industrial threshold states.
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Chapter
2 on climate policy of three Non-Annex I countries offers
a survey of the projections of global energy demand and
global warming gases. It reviews the controversial negotiations
at Kyoto (COP-3) on the inclusion of developing countries
into obligations of Annex I states under the FCCC and
summarises key results with respect to North-South climate
relations. It specifies the three criteria for the assessment
of the climate policy behaviour of South Korea, Mexico
and Brazil and finally it reviews global projections with
respect to population growth, economic and energy growth
and increase of global warming gases.
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Chapter
3 on climate policy of South and East Asia and the Pacific
covers the existing energy cooperation among the APEC
countries and the development of population and economic
growth, energy production and consumption from 1973 to
1992 and offers projections for both indicators until
2010 and beyond for the three regional Annex I countries
(Japan, Australia and New Zealand), the East Asian threshold
states, the ASEAN countries, the populous nations in South
and East Asia and the AOSIS countries.
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Chapter
4 with the country study on the Republic of Korea reviews
the history and the development strategies since 1948,
it portrays the cautious position of South Korea in the
climate negotiations and the evolution of the significant
population (since 1950) and large economic growth (since
1961) and the dramatic increase in energy production and
consumption and of carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions. Furthermore
it summarises the projections of these indicators until
2010, 2030 or 2050. Until the 1990s economic growth had
a clear priority over environment and climate policy initiatives.
The case study concludes that South Korea fulfils all
criteria to be included - as a new OECD country - into
the FCCC as an industrial (Annex I) country and that its
increase of global warming gases from 1990 to 2010 should
be limited to 30-40%.
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Chapter
5 on energy policy, forests and climate policy in Latin
America introduces into the many regional organisations
none of which specifically focuses on climate issues.
It reviews the regional population trends since 1950-1995
and the projections until 2050, the development and projections
of the growth of the GDP, energy consumption and carbon
emissions originating both from the burning of fossil
fuels and land use changes by burning of forests.
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Chapter
6 with the case study on Mexico reviews the history since
the revolution, it portrays the active role of Mexico
in the climate negotiations and the evolution of the significant
population (since 1950), the modest economic growth (since
1980) and the large increase of energy production (oil,
gas) and modest growth in consumption and of carbon dioxide
(CO2) emissions. Furthermore it summarises the projections
of these indicators until 2010, 2030 or 2050. Until the
1990s economic growth had also a clear priority over environment
and climate policy initiatives. Based on the National
Communication for the UNFCCC it compares the official
with scientific assessments of the energy balance and
of the impact of climate change for agriculture and industry
in the Northern, Central and Southern regions. The case
study concludes that Mexico as a new OECD country fulfils
the criteria, if compared with the three transformation,
new OECD and Annex I countries: Hungary, Poland and the
Czech Republic, to be included into the UNFCCC as an Annex
I country and that its permitted increase of global warming
gases from 1990 to 2010 should be limited to 100% analogue
to the EU climate "bubble" of March 1997.
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Chapter
7 with the case study on Brazil reviews the history since
the second World War, it portrays the very active role
of Brazil in the climate negotiations and the evolution
of the very large population (since 1950), of the moderate
economic growth (since 1980) and the modest increase of
fossil energy consumption and of carbon dioxide emissions
(CO2) due to the exploitation of the abundant hydropower
potential for electricity generation and the substitution
of alcohol from sugar cane for petrol. Furthermore, it
summarises the projections of these indicators until 2010,
2030 or 2050. Until recently economic growth had also
a clear priority over environment and climate policy initiatives.
Since the Rio Earth Summit public awareness and concern
of the environmental problems of the Amazon and of the
regional impact of climate change on the semi-arid Northeast
and on the coastal areas grew rapidly. However, only if
the emissions from land use changes are included and compared
with most transformation countries, Brazil fulfils the
criteria to be included into the FCCC as an Annex I country.
Its permitted increase of global warming gases from 1990
to 2010 should be limited to about 150%.
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Chapter
8 with the results and conceptual conclusions summarises
the comparisons of the three threshold states with both
Annex I countries that have a lower BIP per capita than
most transformation countries in Eastern Europe and other
non-Annex I countries of the high and upper medium income
category with respect to their contribution to climate
change and ability to cope with the costs of mitigation
activities. The study recommends that all present and
future members of the OECD, EU and NAFTA should become
Annex I countries and that a OECD and NAFTA "bubble"
should be developed that permits limits to the differentiated
increase of climate change gases according to the status
of economic development. While only threshold and upper
middle income states that accept voluntary restraints
should be awarded grants from GEF and CDM, the low and
low middle income and especially the populous developing
countries should be supported without preconditions (unconditional
addionality). The study suggests a better co-ordination
of German foreign and economic policy with respect to
climate change and the promotion of energy savings, energy
efficiency enhancement and commercialisation of renewables.
Such a policy should aim simultaneously at the reduction
of carbon emissions and at the creation of new and additional
jobs at home.
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apr066;
Language: German; Areas: climate change impacts,
policy; Region: Brazil, Mexico, South Korea, United States,
Germany. |
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